Therefore, effective planning of an evacuation is essential. Poorly managed evacuations tend to lead to a strong resentment of government which, in turn, decreases the ability of emergency management organisations to act effectively in the future (MCDEM 2008). 1991, Lindell and Perry 1992, Cola 1996, Tobin and Whiteford 2002, Perry and Lindell 2003). However, evacuations can produce long-term negative effects such as psychological trauma, and disruption of community cohesion and employment and economic continuity (e.g. Evacuations are also becoming increasingly frequent worldwide as humans continue to develop in hazardous areas and improved technology in many countries allows for prior warnings and the movement of people before a disaster strikes (Sparks 2003, Woo and Grossi 2009). Therefore, we conclude that, from a mobility standpoint, there is considerable merit to intra-regional evacuation.Įvacuations are, and most likely will continue to be, the most common and efficient emergency management strategy when a hazardous event threatens and puts at risk the safety of those within the area (Moriarty et al. Clearance times for intra-regional evacuation ranged from one to nine hours, whereas those for inter-regional evacuation were found to be so high, that the results were unrealistic. Macro-scale vulnerability was far more contingent upon the destination of evacuees, with favourable results for evacuation within the region as opposed to outside the region.
Low-mobility populations generally have better than average access to public transportation. Elevated population to evacuation capacity ratios occur during the day in and around the central city, and at night in many of the outlying suburbs. Evacuation demand was found to be highly correlated to diurnal population movements and neighbourhood boundary types, a trend that was also evident in the evacuation capacity ratio results. Following an analysis of transportation hub functionality and the susceptibility of motorway bridges to a new eruption, modelling using dynamic route and traffic assignment was undertaken to determine various evacuation attributes at a macro-scale and forecast total network clearance times. We achieve this through the calculation of population-, household- and car-to-exit capacity ratios. Diurnal movements of the population are assessed and, due to the seemingly random pattern of eruptions in the past, a non-specific approach is adopted to determine spatial vulnerabilities at a micro-scale (neighbourhoods). This study investigates the evacuation demand throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field and the capacity of the transportation network to fulfil such a demand. When volcanic activity next occurs, the most effective means of protecting the people who reside and work in the region will be to evacuate the danger zone prior to the eruption. 1.5 million) and is situated atop an active monogenetic volcanic field. Auckland is the largest city in New Zealand (pop.
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